The Drake Equation: The Search for ET
N = R* fp ne fl
fi fc L So what the heck is this
anyway? So glad you asked. It’s quite an
intriguing formula and has to do with the probability of life existing
somewhere “out there.” In 1961, while
working as a radio astronomer at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in
Green Bank, West Virginia Dr. Frank Drake established a scientific formula which
became known as the “Drake Equation.” It was actually in 1960 that Drake began
his personal search for extraterrestrial intelligence which, shortly
afterwards, led to his establishing the SETI institute.
It’s an awesome concept
which was put into an equation over 50 years ago. Although Drake made some
assumptions to arrive at his equation, you must admit, it’s a great way to help
us organize our thinking in the way we search for extraterrestrial life. In
1960 his search was called Project Ozma. As Drake said, “For all we knew,
practically every star in the sky had a civilization that’s transmitting.” What
he found was that every star is not home to an intelligent,
communicative civilization. But even Carl Sagan said that SETI as a science
should be pursued.
As we have learned over
time, there are many variables with Drake’s formula. The first three quantities
are ones we can observe with our current technology. It’s the last four terms
where the math gets a little fuzzy. We can say that life is ‘possible’ but not
that it actually exists. Scientists today are much more conservative with their
estimate and some won’t even speculate. If there is life, what percent of that
is intelligent enough to communicate with us? Drake’s answer was 1%. Even that
was a guesstimate. Of that 1% what are the chances that it would communicate on
a level we could understand?
This may all change,
because today we are searching for exoplanets that resemble Earth in size and
temperature. Transiting Exoplanet Satellite Survey (TESS) and the James Webb
Space Telescope are both due to launch around 2018. They will be looking for
Earth-like planets orbiting small stars. Their mission is to concentrate on
atmosphere, gases, oxygen, water vapor or other gases that do not belong to
‘dead’ worlds. Sara Seager has revised the Drake equation to focus simply on
the presence of any alien life. Her focus is on M stars, the most
common. Her calculation suggested that two inhabited planets could be
discovered during the next decade.
N
= N*FQFHZFOFLFS This is the Sara Seager equation, a bit different than Drake’s original. As for me, well I hope that we do find some fascinating, intelligent, and above all, friendly aliens that would be tolerant of us.
For
more information on this topic, please visit:
Drake
Equation: http://www.pbs.org/lifebeyondearth/listening/drake.html
